Submission Channel Patterns in South Manchester HMO Determinations (2024–2026)

Submission Channel Overview

This article documents the distribution of applications across submission channels, the outcome patterns associated with each channel, and the agent concentration structure within this dataset.

Data Scope

This analysis examines 47 HMO planning applications submitted between 2024 and 2026 across Withington, Fallowfield, and Old Moat.

Of 45 applications submitted, 43 were formally determined and 2 were withdrawn prior to decision. Approval and refusal rates are calculated against determined applications (n=43) unless otherwise stated. Agent identity was recorded from the planning portal submission record for each application. Where no agent was recorded, the application is classified as self-submitted.

Outcome Distribution by Submission Channel

Channel	Total	Granted	Refused	Withdrawn	Determined	Approval Rate
Agent-submitted	28	20	7	1	27	74.1%
Self-submitted	19	12	6	1	18	66.7%

Observed differential: 7.4 percentage points (74.1% vs 66.7%). The dataset does not record the factors underlying this variation. Application type distribution across channels is relevant context for this comparison.

Application Type Distribution by Channel

Certificate applications split more evenly across channels: agent-submitted 21 (52.5%), self-submitted 19 (47.5%).

Certificate-Only Channel Comparison

Because self-submitted applications were exclusively Certificates, a direct channel comparison requires isolating Certificate applications only.

Channel (Certificates only)	Determined	Granted	Refused	Approval Rate
Agent-submitted	21	19	2	90.5%
Self-submitted	18	12	6	66.7%

Application type distribution and other contextual variables may influence this observed differential. The dataset does not record the factors underlying this variation.

Full Application Channel Concentration

All 7 Full Applications were agent-submitted: 1 approved, 5 refused, 1 withdrawn. The single approved Full Application was agent-submitted. All five refused Full Applications were also agent-submitted. No self-submitted Full Applications appeared in this dataset, so no self-submitted Full Application outcome comparison is available.

Agent Concentration Structure

28 agent-submitted applications were recorded across 18 unique agent name entries in the portal data. The portal recorded some agents under variant name formats across different applications; where the same individual or firm appears under variant entries, combined figures are used.

Outcome Patterns Among Multi-Application Agents

Agent Entity	Applications	Granted	Refused	Approval Rate	Application Types
Highest-volume	8	8	0	100.0%	All Certificates
Second-volume	3	2	1	66.7%	All Certificates
Third-volume	2	2	0	100.0%	All Certificates
Fourth-volume	2	1	1	50.0%	1 Certificate, 1 Full Application

Named agent-level data is included in the complete report.

Single-Application Agent Outcomes

14 agent entries recorded exactly one application each: 9 granted, 4 refused, 1 withdrawn. Of the 4 refused single-application agent entries, all 4 were Full Applications. Of the 9 granted, 8 were Certificates and 1 was a Full Application — the only approved Full Application in the dataset.

Self-Submitted Application Patterns

All 19 self-submitted applications were Certificate type. No self-submitted application was a Full Application.

Self-submitted Certificate applications achieved a 66.7% approval rate compared to 90.5% for agent-submitted Certificate applications. This dataset does not record applicant experience, property context, or evidence quality, and no causal inference is drawn.

Ward Distribution by Channel

Ward	Agent-Submitted	Self-Submitted	Total
Withington	13	7	20
Fallowfield	8	5	13
Old Moat	7	7	14

Old Moat recorded equal agent and self-submitted volumes. Withington recorded the highest agent proportion (13/20 = 65.0%). Old Moat recorded the lowest (7/14 = 50.0%).

Conclusion

Of 45 applications, 28 were agent-submitted (57.8%) and 19 were self-submitted (42.2%).

Overall approval rates: agent-submitted 74.1% (20/27 determined), self-submitted 66.7% (12/18 determined) — a 7.4 percentage point differential.

On a Certificate-only basis — the appropriate like-for-like comparison given that self-submitted applications were exclusively Certificates — agent-submitted applications achieved 90.5% approval (19/21) compared to 66.7% for self-submitted (12/18 determined). The Certificate-only differential was 23.8 percentage points.

All 7 Full Applications were agent-submitted. The application type distribution across channels is relevant context for the overall channel comparison.

Agent concentration was uneven: the highest-volume entity accounted for 8 of 28 agent-submitted applications. Four multi-application agent entities combined for 16 of 28 agent-submitted applications (57.1%).

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